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KMID : 1138720170430030053
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Korean Public Health Research
2017 Volume.43 No. 3 p.53 ~ p.66
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Analysis of Effects of Regional Air Pollutants(PM10, O3, CO) on Respiratory Disease
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Park Jae-Woo
Hwang Byung-Deog
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Abstract
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Objective : The objective of this study is to establish a statistical prediction model for health damage caused by increased air pollution.
Methods : Data used in this study span 12 years from 2002 to 2013, and cover the entire country. The impact of changing concentration levels of 3 air pollutants PM10, O3, and CO on respiratory disease was investigated. The country was divided into 4 regions, and the effects on each region according to environmental characteristics were compared with one another for analysis.
Results : In terms of PM10, the monthly average prevalence of respiratory disease increased by about 2.4% for each 1㎍/㎥ increase of monthly average PM10 concentration level over the country. Considering the prevalence by region, the Seoul Capital Area Sudogwon saw an increased prevalence of respiratory disease by about 3.0%, Chungcheong region by about 1.2%, Jeolla region by about 0.4%, and Gyeongsang region by about 1.6% per 1㎍/㎥ of monthly PM10 increase. As for the monthly average concentration of O3, the prevalence of respiratory disease increased by about 4.0% for each 0.001ppm increase across the country. By region, the monthly average prevalence of respiratory disease increased by about 3.0% in Sudogwon, by about 1.0% in Jeolla region, and by about 2.5% in Gyeongsang region for each 0.001ppm increase of the monthly average O3 concentration. The monthly average prevalence of respiratory disease increased by about 0.6% across the country for each 0.01ppm increase of monthly average CO concentration. By region, it increased by
about 3.0% in Sudogwon, by about 1.6% in Chungcheong region, by about 0.8% in Jeolla region, and about 1.8% in Gyeongsang region for each 0.01ppm increase of monthly average CO concentration.
Conclusions : In general, the prevalence of respiratory disease demonstrated an increasing trend in accordance with the increase of concentration of air pollutants. The effect of each air pollutant varied depending on the characteristics of each region. Therefore, it is necessary to establish air pollution standards which take regional characteristics into account in the future.
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KEYWORD
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Air pollutants, Respiratory disease, Time series analysis, ARIMA, ARIMAX
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